Aug 20th, 2010
by jakartica.
Andrew interviews Indonesian aid workers at one of the hip new cafés in downtown Banda Aceh.
I apologize for the radio silence over the last month on Jakartica. I have been furiously trying to finish up some work before I leave Indonesia in a few days to return to the United States to complete my graduate studies, while battling a couple of tropical illnesses (no worries– annoying bugs, but nothing serious).
I have, however, been posting on the Interpreter, the blog of Sydney’s Lowy Institute for International Policy. The Interpreter sent Andrew Siddons and I up to Aceh late last month, where we interviewed local officials, aid workers, and residents on the complex situation there. Andrew and I both really enjoyed Aceh– it’s beautiful country, full of remarkably gracious and welcoming people, and home to some of the best coffee in the archipelago. The reconstruction of Aceh is a great success story, considering the totality of the conflict and destruction it suffered from 1976 to 2005. But success has raised expectations, and now Aceh faces many challenges.
The first post, looking at how the province’s former insurgents have been performing in their new jobs in government, can be found here. The second post, on the strange success of the peace process, absent actual progress toward a final agreement, can be found here. Andrew’s radio report can be found here. I will have a third post going up early next week, on the politics of religion in Aceh.
Posted in: Aceh, Australia, Islam, coffee, southeast asian politics.
Aug 18th, 2010
by jakartica.
An Indonesian Navy vessel, the PC40, patrols the Lombok Strait in May. My photograph. (Thanks to Dzirhan Mahadzir for identifying the vessel.)
The American scholar John Mearsheimer recently delivered a lecture at the University of Sydney. He spoke primarily about the rise of China and the implications of that rise for Australia. Because Mearsheimer is a traditional realist, in the international relations theory meaning of that term, he naturally told his audience to expect a great power rivalry between the United States and China at some point at least twenty years from now. In Mearsheimer’s view, Indonesia is an important venue in that contest– so important, that he suggests we could even see a PRC military presence on Indonesian soil in the years after 2030. He explains his thinking below:
China’s dependence on imported oil, which is already substantial, is going to increase markedly over the next few decades. Much of that imported oil will come out of the Middle East and most of it will be transported to China by ship. For all the talk about moving oil by pipelines and railroads through Burma and Pakistan, the fact is that maritime transport is a much easier and cheaper option. The Chinese, of course, know this and it is one reason why they are planning to build a blue water navy. They want to be able to protect their sea-lanes that run to and from the Middle East. Continue reading →
Posted in: Australia, Lombok Strait, Straits of Malacca, Sunda Strait, american politics, indonesian politics, international relations theory, maritime security, singapore, southeast asian politics, trade.
Jul 21st, 2010
by jakartica.
Josh Kurlantzick has a post up at Asia Unbound, the blog of the Asia staff of the Council on Foreign Relations, suggesting that we ought to be wary of the high growth numbers that many Southeast Asian economies are posting this year. He notes that this growth is export-based, and thus subject to the whims of external shocks like the East Asian Financial Crisis of 1997-1998 and the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-2009. He further notes the difficulties that governments in the region have had in spurring domestic consumption in order to diversify drivers of growth.
He is right about most of the countries he cites–Singapore, Thailand, and the Philippines (and I would add Malaysia to that list)– but he is mistaken to include Indonesia among the bunch. Indonesia is not like its neighbors in the region, in that it already boasts substantial domestic consumption numbers, numbers which sustained it through last year’s crisis with a 4.5% growth rate. (The rate was helped by robust spending on the legislative and presidential elections, which some economists suggested amounted to an astounding 1% of GDP).
In fact, Indonesia has the opposite problem: a dearth of foreign investment and exports. Conventional wisdom holds that export-focused investors have shied away from Indonesia for two reasons, corruption and its decrepit infrastructure. Intangibles like rule of law, sanctity of contract, and regulatory reliability– all things that are held hostage by this country’s endemic culture of corruption– matter to foreign firms. So, too, does the ability to reliably deliver a product, a capacity frequently diminished by inadequate infrastructure.
I recall a resources client I once worked for, in a previous life as a political risk analyst, which told our firm’s principals that after three months of regulatory obstruction and unreliable delivery, they were ready to just give up on Indonesia. No matter how much better the price of the ore coming out of the hills here was, the difference would be made up in the cost of delays and hiring consultants and lawyers to seek ways around those delays, or scrambling to find alternative sources at the last minute.
All this has made Indonesia a market of last resort for resources and in other exports, and is holding the country back from even greater growth. Tragically, few in power in Jakarta seem interested in changing the culture that has created the problem.
Posted in: Uncategorized, economics, indonesian politics, rent-seeking, southeast asian politics.
Jul 16th, 2010
by jakartica.
I’ve been in Australia this week for the inaugural Emerging Scholars Forum at the Australia National University in Canberra, and to see friends and do a little tourism in Sydney. Radio Australia’s Linda Mottram has done a brief piece on the Forum, in which I appear briefly talking about one of my other research interests, regional institutional architecture. I wrote my undergraduate thesis on the topic several years ago, and have kept up with developments since. You can find the audio after the jump. Continue reading →
Posted in: Australia, Institutional architecture.
Jul 12th, 2010
by jakartica.
Logo of the 46th Muhammadiyah Congress
By Jeremy Menchik
Muhammadiyah is one of Indonesia’s two massive Islamic organizations. Founded in 1912 by the scholar and teacher Ahmad Dahlan in Yogyakarta, Muhammadiyah is a pillar of civil society. With a network of over ten thousand schools, thousands of mosques, hundreds of hospitals and universities and one of Indonesia’s oldest women’s organizations, Muhammadiyah is one reason why Indonesia has a bright future.
Muhammadiyah is not involved in party politics. This was one of the mantras at its recent centennial congress, sincerely and repeatedly expressed by leaders and organizers. Yet confusing to western observers was that Muhammadiyah chair Din Syamsuddin’s opening remarks at the congress were directed squarely at President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY). In a tone rarely heard in polite Javanese society, Syamsuddin lambasted the president for not attending the congress in person but rather opening the congress via satellite from Medina, Saudi Arabia. SBY’s boycott was intended to show his dissatisfaction with Syamsuddin’s criticism of government corruption, Syamsuddin’s backing of Yosef Kalla in the 2009 presidential election, and Muhammadiyah’s general failure to support the expansive coalition of Partai Demokrat. Continue reading →
Posted in: Islam, Jusuf Kalla, Muhammadiyah, indonesian politics, legislative politics, southeast asian politics.
Jul 2nd, 2010
by jakartica.
In my last post, I mentioned the role that the Islamic Defenders’ Front (known by its Indonesian initials, FPI) played in recruiting the group that eventually became Al-Qaida on the Verandah of Mecca. My CSIS colleague, Evan Laksmana, touches upon an important debate in his comments on the post:
…On [the] FPI side of things, I’m not fully convinced that disbanding them simply because they spread hatred or make insidious comments is the best way to go. If they commit violence, or conspired to do so, then yes, the members should be arrested, prosecuted, and tried based on existing laws. But to simply disband them for what they “believe in” could set a bad precedent in the future as it gives security forces a reason to disband any group (e.g. pro-democracy or anti-corruption activists) on the grounds of “disturbing public order.” Continue reading →
Posted in: Aceh, Islam, indonesian politics, legislative politics, police, southeast asian politics, terrorism.
